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About This Project
What this is
This site presents a research package on the 2019–2025 U.S. cost-of-living squeeze from the vantage of a working family: what groceries and essentials actually cost, how paychecks did and didn't keep up, and where the bulk of the extra money ended up. It is intended as a durable, sourced reference for general readers, journalists, researchers, and labor and policy advocates.
The data was compiled from primary government sources (the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, USDA, and the Federal Reserve) and from peer-reviewed and think-tank analysis (Economic Policy Institute, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the Groundwork Collaborative, and NBER). All sources are listed on the Sources page.
Who built it
This project is published by Black Mesa Research Labs (BMRL), an independent research operation. BMRL produces structured datasets and long-form analysis on public-interest topics. It is not affiliated with any political party, union, employer, or government agency.
An honest framing
We try not to overstate the case. Over the full 2019–2025 window, nominal wages roughly matched — even slightly beat — average inflation, and the largest real gains went to lower-wage workers. The squeeze is real for three specific, documentable reasons: the pain was front-loaded into 2021–2022 when prices outran pay; it concentrated in the essentials families can't avoid; and price levels never reset. The charts are built to show exactly where and when wages fell behind — not to claim they always did.
How to cite
For academic or journalistic use, cite as:
Black Mesa Research Labs. Inflation and Wages: The Working Family's Squeeze (2019–2025).
Compiled May 2026. Available at: https://inflation.blackmesalabs.org For specific data points, cite the primary source listed in the relevant CSV row or in the sources list. BMRL compiles and structures the data; the originating data belongs to BLS, BEA, USDA, the Federal Reserve, and the cited research institutions.
Data update schedule
| Source | Cadence | Next expected |
|---|---|---|
| BLS CPI (monthly release) | Monthly | Mid-June 2026 |
| BLS Real Earnings | Monthly (with CPI) | Mid-June 2026 |
| BEA Corporate Profits | Quarterly (~2-month lag) | September 2026 |
| USDA Cost of Food at Home | Monthly | June 2026 |
License
The compiled dataset (CSV files and analysis) is released under CC BY 4.0. You may share and adapt it for any purpose with attribution. Underlying federal government data (BLS, BEA, USDA, Federal Reserve) is in the public domain.
Caveats
Index values are rebased to 2019 = 100. 2025 figures are preliminary and will be revised. The Thrifty Food Plan re-evaluation of August 2021 introduces a ~21% methodological break in the family food-budget series. Average retail prices are U.S. city averages and won't match any single store or region. The profit-driver decomposition covers the non-financial corporate sector and the specific 2020–21 window studied by EPI; it is a contribution-share analysis, not a claim that profits caused inflation. See the Methodology section of the full analysis for detail.