Sources

All claims in the analysis cite one or more of the sources below. Federal statistical agencies (BLS, BEA, USDA, Federal Reserve) are primary. Research institutions (EPI, Kansas City Fed, Groundwork Collaborative, NBER) are secondary analyses of those primary data.

Primary government data

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — prices

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) home — all-items CPI-U and category indices (food at home, shelter, electricity, gasoline, medical care, motor-vehicle insurance, childcare).
• CPI Average Price Data — U.S. city average retail prices for individual items (eggs, milk, bread, ground beef, coffee, etc.). Series IDs are listed in the source column of 02_grocery_basket_2019_2025.csv.
• CPI news release, June 2022 — documents the 9.1% peak, a 40-year high.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — wages

• Current Employment Statistics (CES) — average hourly earnings, including the production and non-supervisory employees series used here.
• Real Earnings news release — inflation-adjusted average hourly and weekly earnings; documents the 2021–2022 real-wage decline.

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — profits

• BEA National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) — corporate profits (Table 1.14). After-tax profit share of GDP.
• FRED: Corporate Profits After Tax (CP) and CP/GDP ratio — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis presentation of BEA data.

USDA — food plans

• USDA Food Plans: Cost of Food Reports (monthly) — Thrifty, Low-cost, Moderate, and Liberal plan costs by household composition.
• Thrifty Food Plan, 2021 re-evaluation — documents the ~21% increase and methodology change.
• USDA ERS — Avian Influenza — context for the egg-price spike.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — oil & gas

• EIA Petroleum & Other Liquids — Brent and WTI crude spot prices and U.S. retail gasoline prices (file 07).
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2026 — monthly/quarterly price estimates and forecasts. Source for: April 2026 Brent $117/bbl (peak $138 on Apr 7), ~$106 May–June, ~$89 Q4; 2026 annual Brent $95 and retail gasoline $3.88 (vs $3.10 in 2025).
• EIA Today in Energy — "Crude oil and petroleum product prices increased sharply in the first quarter of 2026" — Q1 2026 detail: Brent $61→$118, >$100 on Mar 12, retail gasoline $3.99/gal on Mar 30, Brent–WTI spread to $25.
• EIA — The Strait of Hormuz — why the chokepoint (≈20% of global oil supply) drives the risk premium.

Iran war (energy context)

• 2025 — the scare that reversed. The June 13–24, 2025 "12-Day War" (U.S. strikes on Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan, June 21–22; ceasefire June 24) drove a brief crude spike (~$81 intraday) that reversed within weeks as the Strait of Hormuz stayed open.
• 2026 — the crisis that didn't. Per EIA, military action that began February 28, 2026 led to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz (effectively shut to shipping since), with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE shutting in output. This is the sustained shock documented in file 07. May–June 2026 values are EIA estimates/forecasts and should be refreshed as full data publishes.

Federal Reserve — household stress

• NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report — credit-card balances and delinquencies.

Secondary research and analysis

• Bivens, J. (2022). Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. How should policymakers respond? Economic Policy Institute. — The 54% / 8% decomposition (file 04).
• Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2023). Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022.
• Groundwork Collaborative (2024). Corporate profits' contribution to inflation.
• Weber, I. & Wasner, E. (2023). "Sellers' inflation, profits and conflict", Institute for New Economic Thinking.
• Autor, D., Dube, A. & McGrew, A. (2023). The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market, NBER. — Real wage gains concentrated among lower-wage workers.
• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Energy data and outlooks — energy-price context after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

A note on revisions and comparability

• Index values are rebased to 2019 annual average = 100 for readability; underlying levels live with each source.
• 2025 values are preliminary and will be revised as full-year data publishes.
• The Thrifty Food Plan re-evaluation (Aug 2021) introduces a methodological break in 03_family_food_budget.csv; see the report's Methodology section.