Research Data
Data & Downloads
All data underlying this analysis is available as clean CSV files. Each file matches the schema in the data dictionary. Indices are rebased to 2019 = 100; 2025 figures are preliminary.
Prices vs wages, indexed (2019 = 100)
| Year | All-items CPI | Groceries | Nominal wages | Real wages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2020 | 101.2 | 103.8 | 104.9 | 103.6 |
| 2021 | 106 | 107.8 | 109.8 | 103.6 |
| 2022 | 114.5 | 121.6 | 116.2 | 101.5 |
| 2023 | 119.2 | 126.6 | 122 | 102.4 |
| 2024 | 122.7 | 128.2 | 126.6 | 103.2 |
| 2025 | 126 | 131.6 | 131 | 104 |
Source: BLS CPI-U and CES (production & nonsupervisory wages). 2025 preliminary.
Grocery basket (2019 vs 2025)
| Item | 2019 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eggs (grade A large) | $1.40 | $4.15 | +196% |
| Orange juice (frozen concentrate) | $2.30 | $4.50 | +96% |
| Coffee (ground roast) | $4.30 | $7.20 | +67% |
| Sugar (white) | $0.62 | $1.02 | +65% |
| Ground beef (100% beef) | $3.81 | $6.10 | +60% |
| Bread (white | — | $1.28 | +2% |
| Chicken breast (boneless) | $3.10 | $4.45 | +44% |
| Rice (white | — | $0.72 | +1% |
| Potatoes (white) | $0.77 | $1.05 | +36% |
| Milk (whole | — | $3.04 | +4% |
| Bacon (sliced) | $5.60 | $7.10 | +27% |
| Bananas | $0.57 | $0.65 | +14% |
Source: BLS Average Price Data, U.S. city average. 2025 preliminary.
Family-of-four food budget (USDA, monthly $)
| Year | Thrifty | Low-cost | Moderate | Liberal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $655 | $855 | $1,065 | $1,300 |
| 2020 | $680 | $890 | $1,100 | $1,340 |
| 2021† | $835 | $905 | $1,120 | $1,370 |
| 2022 | $940 | $1,010 | $1,235 | $1,500 |
| 2023 | $975 | $1,050 | $1,290 | $1,565 |
| 2024 | $985 | $1,065 | $1,310 | $1,590 |
| 2025 | $1,010 | $1,095 | $1,345 | $1,630 |
† Thrifty Food Plan re-evaluated Aug 2021 (~21% increase) — not directly comparable to prior years. Source: USDA Cost of Food at Home.
Essentials vs wages (cumulative 2019→2025)
| Category | Cumulative change |
|---|---|
| Eggs | +196.4% |
| Motor vehicle insurance | +54% |
| Electricity | +33% |
| Groceries (food at home) | +32% |
| Restaurant meals (food away from home) | +31.5% |
| Rent of primary residence | +30.5% |
| Gasoline | +24% |
| Childcare and nursery school | +22% |
| Medical care services | +15% |
| Overall CPI | +26% |
| Nominal wages | +31% |
| Real wages | +4% |
Source: BLS CPI category indices and CES. 2025 preliminary.
Oil & gas, monthly (Iran-war period flagged)
| Month | Brent $/bbl | WTI $/bbl | Gasoline $/gal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01 | $80 | $74 | $3.10 |
| 2024-02 | $82 | $77 | $3.25 |
| 2024-03 | $85 | $81 | $3.45 |
| 2024-04 | $89 | $85 | $3.60 |
| 2024-05 | $82 | $78 | $3.60 |
| 2024-06 | $82 | $79 | $3.45 |
| 2024-07 | $85 | $82 | $3.50 |
| 2024-08 | $80 | $76 | $3.45 |
| 2024-09 | $74 | $70 | $3.25 |
| 2024-10 | $76 | $71 | $3.15 |
| 2024-11 | $74 | $69 | $3.05 |
| 2024-12 | $73 | $70 | $3.00 |
| 2025-01 | $79 | $75 | $3.10 |
| 2025-02 | $75 | $71 | $3.15 |
| 2025-03 | $72 | $68 | $3.15 |
| 2025-04 | $66 | $63 | $3.15 |
| 2025-05 | $64 | $61 | $3.10 |
| 2025-06 | $71 | $68 | $3.20 |
| 2025-07 | $70 | $67 | $3.20 |
| 2025-08 | $67 | $64 | $3.10 |
| 2025-09 | $66 | $63 | $3.05 |
| 2025-10 | $64 | $61 | $3.00 |
| 2025-11 | $63 | $60 | $2.98 |
| 2025-12 | $64 | $61 | $3.00 |
| 2026-01 | $66 | $62 | $3.00 |
| 2026-02 | $71 | $65 | $3.10 |
| 2026-03 | $106 | $91 | $3.30 |
| 2026-04 | $117 | $100 | $4.45 |
| 2026-05 | $106 | $95 | $4.35 |
| 2026-06 | $106 | $94 | $4.15 |
Source: EIA spot prices & weekly retail gasoline. Highlighted rows = June 2025 Israel–Iran war onward. 2026 months preliminary.
Download all data
Prices vs wages, indexed (2019–2025)
01_cpi_vs_wages_annual.csv
Grocery basket prices (2019 vs 2025)
02_grocery_basket_2019_2025.csv
USDA family-of-four food budget
03_family_food_budget.csv
Inflation-driver decomposition
04_inflation_drivers_decomposition.csv
Corporate profits & margins
05_corporate_profits_margins.csv
Essential-category inflation vs wages
06_essentials_vs_wages.csv
Oil & gas prices, monthly (Iran-war period flagged)
07_energy_prices_monthly.csv
Data dictionary
Full schema: data_dictionary.md is included in the dataset download. Key notes:
- Percentages are stored as
26.0(not0.26) - Index columns are rebased to
2019 = 100 - Currency is U.S. dollars; no commas or symbols in raw values
2025rows are preliminary partial-year estimates- Join
01_+05_onyearto overlay prices/wages against profit margins